Tu Daal Dal Main Paat Pat

GOD

2009-07-30T17:55:00.003+05:30

GOD
Why you always gives me the thoughts
I can win.......
because of these thoughts
I always makes sin.......

GOD
Why you indicate I can fly
this intimation force me to try
no matter I won
but victory always made me cry....

GOD
Can't you give me some peace-some rest
so-that I could think
and pray you as my best.

GOD
No again cry, no more do & die,
just want to hear your voice.....
before I actually die.....

(Forgive me for grammer, my english is too weak
well..., I am trying to my best...
learn & speek.....

Please bear with bear )

Bollinger Bands

2008-12-10T22:44:00.004+05:30

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are based on MA + Standard Deviation……Few peoples use the bands as support & resistance levels…. And this theory work correctly in range-bound market as buy near lower band & sell at mid or near upper band or sell near upper or mid band and buy near lower band……….

But …….I feel this is not the correct interoperation of the tool……… it is much better to check the continuation of price rather than looking at weather it is near upper-mid or lower band…….

The continuation of price at upper band indicate a bullish trend and buying is much at dips is a much better option rather than shorting or selling……and visa versa …….continuation at lower band indicate sell…….

We can check the continuation of price at upper band in DLF & Bharti & at lower band in Ranbaxy.

Here ……..this is to be noted…….when price is appearing near upper band…….mid-band can be used buying point or support whereas if the continuation of price is at lower band mid band can be used as selling point or resistance level.-

Volume Strength Index

2008-12-09T15:09:00.003+05:30

In my openion.......Volumes are no-way useful unless we could identify them with price......though this tool is available for few peoples only...............

Divergance

2008-12-09T14:50:00.003+05:30

Divergance is simply differance of two moving averages .......if it is positive & rising .........go long.....if negetive and becoming deeper negative.....go short........

Moving Average & Cross-over

2008-12-09T14:36:00.004+05:30

Buy if Prise rise above average and sell when fall below.........stope can be placed near MA line.

Keep-away if price line is salugshing with ma line.

SAR

2008-12-09T00:45:00.006+05:30

SARParabolic Sar – normally used to place stops……. But can be used for direction too……Check the yahoo charts of a stock ……..plot sar……if it under price line……go long….if Sar is appearing above price line……go short……here is some charts

Technical Analysis or Trading Arguments.....

2008-12-09T00:39:00.006+05:30

I am not a great fan of TA…….and in my opinion…….TA should be defined as Trading Arguments rather than Technical Analysis…….

Ok friends……….it’s my turn now…….I learned too much from this forum, an-other reason ....I can be become Mr Gayab ......at any time from forum........ so before I acyually become Mr Gayab.......I feel it is my duty now to contribute something that could be helpful specially for newbie…..

I am pure intraday player………long/mid term does not suits me at all……..will not write to much as in intraday nothing works except picking right direction……..But before I start ………under-standing of few things is necessary :

1.Technical tools will be helpful only if we really understand them………

2. TA is useful only if we are disciplined. Stop is must ……..few points away from the entry point. Here I am trying to explain few tools along-with some tricks those I have never ever shared with any-one…….& are useful to get few points ……..But my honest suggestion.....please check before u actually use it......

Nifty for 8th Dec to 12th Dec 2008

2008-12-06T21:21:00.004+05:30

Natural kept rising in entire week.
Now 3357 has shifted to 3195 and if break of this can invite intermediate up-trend.
whearas break of 2553 can throw it again to 2252 or lower.

Supports at 2656-2553

Resitance at 3195-3340

My level for entire month 3540 stands same as it will be a miracle if Nifty could break 3540.

Nifty for 1st Dec to 5th dec-2008

2008-11-30T20:51:00.000+05:30

Nifty could not break 3540 in entire month…….

Support at 2646-2623-2514-2449
Resistance at 2823-2892-2994-3091 and finally at 3357

Now …….3357 will decide the fate of Nifty & If it could cross & sustain above 3357…..we can see a intermediate uptrend…….but in present situations …….it seems nearly impossible.

……..I will again say…….it will be miracle if Nifty could break 3540 upto end of Dec-2008.

Nifty 24th Nov to 28th Nov 2008

2008-11-23T00:21:00.009+05:30

Volume strength Index (VSI) indicate a postive move........may be because of short-covering & expiry.

Supports at 2553-2358

Reitance at 2901-3091-3224

I still maintain.......It will be a miracle if Nifty could break 3540 in 1-2 months.

Nifty 17th Nov to 21st Nov 2008

2008-11-16T11:42:00.004+05:30

There is not much change except that natural that was showing smart recovery on 8th Nov now again turning downward and leveles has shifted little lower.

However I maintain my levels same as I posted on 29th Oct & 8th Nov............

It will be a miracle if Nifty could break 3540 in 1-2 months........
i.e. end of Nov........

Nifty for 10th Nov to 14th Nov-2008

2008-11-08T22:11:00.009+05:30

First Chart shows the smart recovery.......

2nd & 3rd charts shows the movement on natural & intermediate terms.

Intermedaiate chart shows the resitance at 3453....if Nifty could cross & sustain above the next levels of resitance will be 3760-4103.

Supports stands at downside at 2723-2644-2429-2072

These are the extreem levels for entire month........my personal openion.......it will be a miracle if Nifty could cross 3540 in 1-2 months........

ZX-Natural

ZX-Intermediate.

2008-11-02T21:21:00.002+05:30

Immediate support at 2765
Immediate resitance at 2921

Pivot supports- 2747-2609-2522
Pivot Resitance-2972-3059-3197

3rd Nov to 7th Nov 2008

2008-11-02T21:13:00.004+05:30

First hurdle that nifty has to face is at 3151, if it could cross it and sustain above......it can see 3421-3540.

2008-10-29T20:55:00.002+05:30

Immediate Support at 2612 Resitance 2759

Pivot supports at 2624-2552-2473
Pivot Resitance at 2775-2855-2926

2008-10-28T21:40:00.002+05:30

Index celibrated diwali to-day.

Now 3106 will decide the path for nifty.........and.......

If it could break 3539 in next 1-2 months.......it will be a miracle for me.

Btw if it break 2252 again ........I guess a down-ward target.......2127-2065-1939-1877......... upto 1578.

2008-10-23T21:10:00.002+05:30

For towmarrow I guess a tempreary upmove .
If index could break 3106........it can easily cross 2nd resitance.

Supports at 2878-2813-2709

Resitance - 3047-3151-3216

At downside 2898 and at upside 3106 are the important levels.

2008-10-22T22:09:00.000+05:30

Supports-2998-2932-2813

Resitance-3184-3302-3368

2008-10-21T19:18:00.004+05:30

Volatily Supports 3179-3150-3113

Pivot Supports -3149-3064-3012
Resitance-3286-3339

Stock to Watch

2008-10-20T22:34:00.004+05:30

Bhel
Support-1041-984
Resitance-1200-1300-1357

HDFC
Support-1809-1815-1735-1690
Resitance-1928-1973-2047

SBI
Support-1366-1296-1224
Resitance-1508-1580-1650

2008-10-20T22:21:00.003+05:30

Support 3095-3025-2941

Resitance 3170-3240-3262

Stocks to watch 20-10-2008

2008-10-19T13:56:00.004+05:30

Bhel

Supports-1182-1157-1128

Resitance-1216-1231-1272-1290-1327

HDFC

Supports-1762-1741-1720

Resitance-1813-1831-1848

SBI

Support -1403-1386-1344

Resitance-1472-1502-1535

Projected Charting

2008-10-18T09:37:00.000+05:30

OK........We have historical /intraday charts......supports/resitance........wonderfull tools.....like stockhastic & candles........the costly softwares.........even imaginery......points (supp/resit) for next day.Something is flashing in my mind.........not sure what will be the shape of the thought in near future.......Can we prepare a projected chart for next day....... and letter-on compare with actual movement........?Do............the projected charting could be usefull.......?

2008-10-17T21:49:00.003+05:30

Nifty ........looks like downstairs.........

Supports at .............3035........2955.......2798........2685.

Resitance...........3144..........3181.........3291.........3311.

From Monday .......will try to update.........few stocks on EOD basis.

2008-10-16T21:54:00.002+05:30

Support at 3246..........3202........3100-3048

Resitance .............3413..........

2008-10-15T20:54:00.002+05:30

Nifty SGX ke peechhe....., SGx.......Heng-Seng ke peechhe..........
Heng-seng ...........Dow ke peeche.........Dow............
Lehman ke peechhe..........

Seems.......financial markets are following AADI RULE..........

Charwati........Charwati...............

Support at 3315........3145........
Resitance..........3467-3518.

2008-10-14T22:37:00.004+05:30

VSI-Oct-2008

Nifty- Intraday.

Support at 3496-3467 resitance at 3640-3700.

VSI is still below zero + average line.

Market is still not comfortable with longs.

2008-10-13T20:22:00.002+05:30

Nifty Monthly

Nifty Intraday

Support 3393-3350 Resitance 3610

2008-10-10T22:49:00.003+05:30

Today Nifty Made the map of India.

Shining India.........Rising India.........

Support at 3175........Resitance at......3378.

If break 3175.....next level will be 3048-3004.

Dow...............

2008-10-08T22:31:00.007+05:30

Dow Aug-Dec 2007

Dow -2008

The support of 10996 indicated on 27th Feb 2007, again 9516 on 22 Jan 2008 shown in charts have been already broken.

Now if 9008 breaks...........?

Will Dow be at 6255.........?

God save Investors.

2008-10-07T20:22:00.002+05:30

Support 3537-3468 resitance 3641-3690-3720.

Chahe lakh kare chaturai........
Karam ka lekh mite na bhai........

Market doesn't looks convinced.......No matter RBI reduce CRR, SEBI give relief on P-Notes or US bring Bail-out........

Yeh gaya......woh gaya.....

BTW......a temperary bounce could be........any-time.

2008-10-05T20:21:00.005+05:30

Its quite confusing now and can turn either side.

Support at 3797-3729, resitance at 3846-3921, if it could break 3921 ........we can see 3960 -4050-4141.

First chart is monthly Nifty and other is intraday chart for 3rd Oct 2008.

If it slips from here .......in short term it can watch 3617- 3409-3380.

Will Nifty Watch thease levels.......

2008-10-02T22:15:00.007+05:30

I return to my 1st post ........

.........and another study from RK......

though the earlier level of 3617 given by him in nov 2007 has not broken till now.......but if few Indian Giants goes bank-rupt,the market keep continue..........

nifty can watch the lower levels marked at chart.

BTW I could be wrong.

2008-09-17T23:33:00.005+05:30

Support for 19.09.2008 ...........3800

Resitance at 4116......4161....

My father has to face a major operation ....won't be able to update the blog for few days.

Sorry friends.

2008-09-17T23:33:00.003+05:30

Now....Index seems in great trouble......if any up-move appear in day or two.....it could be because of short-covering and expirey.....else........

Supports at 3950......3910.....resitance...4117...4160

Nifty ......below it's 5 and even 3 days ma.....hopefully we will see a new low.....in coming few weaks.

Day-dreaming

2008-09-16T22:08:00.004+05:30

One of my friend says "Americans are really great. They increase the cost of Crude by 6$ when Huricane appear and reduce it by 10 $ when it pass away.

Well, can't say about his methology.....but.....

In 1991-1992 we seen Harshad......, then Ketan Parikh....., some off-track frauds.....like JVG Financial, Kuber, Golden Forest, Sterling tree, Global trust bank.....even the nose of Indian Govt. UTI.....(that was saved by Govt.)......and now.....

Lehman & DSP.......they were managing big portfolios......did they ever had a view on even their portfolios .......? how many others are in the que.....?

In July/August ......one of the Giant from UK decleared themself defalter because of crude.....

and I guess......ICICI is bagging to govt of India to save them......

One of the broking house with it's finicial subsdries.....and supported Mutual Funds is walking on the road.......

An-other company .......involve in every business........

My god.......what I am dreaming
Happy period predictions......2008-2014.

2008-09-15T22:24:00.003+05:30

VSI at (-)64%.

Dow is trading 224 points down along with europ.If Dow close in deep red....there may be a major impact here.

anyway......support at 3955 resitance at 4160.

2008-09-12T21:41:00.006+05:30

VSI at -47%

Nifty ....touched the bottom at 4200....(and because of NSE's greatness (average policy) closed at 4228.

Support at 4164 resitance at 4325.

A double bottom formation is appearing in Nifty........

If international market supports.....I guess an upmove upto at-least 4368 levels in coming week.

If break 4164.......be reddy to see 4050-4002.

2008-09-12T09:36:00.001+05:30

4280 is a major support.

I guess Nifty will bounce-back from here.

2008-09-11T21:57:00.003+05:30

Now the Index is below from it's 20 ma 4379 and 50 ma 4292. If the fall continue.......the next target could be 4160.

Immediate support at 4272 and 4202. resitance at 4400

Stop-loss The Big Mistery

2008-09-10T20:11:00.007+05:30

There is a big difference between investor and trader.......Investor buy and sleep...he never bother for stop.....whereas trader can not survive without stop........

Stop is like bullet-proof ....for trader.

In simple words.....stop-loss is a squaring-off order for a trade that is going in wrong direction....so that the loss on the wrong trade could be minimized or limited.

Stop......mental or phycal.......I will not go in detail here and directly comes on point......the trade should be not placed without stop. No mental stop please.......because there are only few people who are capable to control themselves else 90% of peoples who use mental stop normally hesitate to cut the position........
but before placing the trade or stop It is better to understand where the stop should be used and where headge......

Normally.....in an established market stop works well......if stop hit .....reburse the trade or forget.....and look for other target......but in volatile market stop become suicidal point......it hurts....so better to headge the position.
My personal opinion......use the stop with stocks......and headge the position while trading Index.

Now.....what should be the level of stop......?

Well......few peoples use a certain percentage......some peoples use a fix stop like 5 rs 10 rs......few other use support based stop......

Operators.....normally try every trick....and drive in crazy way....some time stop hit the bottom/top go little lower/higher and return.......false break-outs/break-downs.... these are the basic problems......there is no solution.....so in my view a Volatility based stop is much better than other types......and that can be calculated on hourly or 30 minuets time frame......formula is.......

Range calculation ....high-low/previous day's close*100 = VS%

now divide the VS% by a suitable number (2,4,5......)

and now .....hourly support or stock price -VS%

this formula is for long........for short we add the % VS to hourly high or nearest resistance.

here is a small example.....bhel (Today's first hour)high 1760 low 1743 , previous close 1760.25.....so use the stop at 1742 or calcualate......

Range = High- Low , 1760-1743 = 17
divided by previous day's close 1760.25 = .96%

Now this .96% can either be used as stop or divided it by a suitable number for example .......divide it by 2= .48%or say .5%

Now if the trader is buying 1748 levels.....stop should be at 1748-9 (1748*.5%)=1739. So if the stop hit at 1739.......forget or go short.

2008-09-10T19:13:00.004+05:30

4352 to 4558 and now at 4400.

and hopefully.....towmarrow ....the index would again be near 4350 or at lower levels.....

as I guessed......the rally was purly was driven by succkers ......and hopefully......the next target for index is near 4280 levels.

2008-09-08T22:09:00.002+05:30

VSI is still under average line.

2008-09-08T21:47:00.004+05:30

Nifty touched 4558 and closed at 4482.
130 points up.But why selling off at higher levels......?

The comming days will decide......wether it was a genuin move or rally of succker's.

Did you remember.......the mid of July......the UPA government had to face confidence motion.....

and before 2 days.......market started rising....and in next few days it jumped over 400 points......but thereafter..........

and now again......but after the celibration of deal.........?

Day-trading.......How is this ?

2008-09-07T21:20:00.003+05:30

BPCl and Nifty on 5th Sep 2008.

Simple rule.........

if IZX is below close......buy else sell.

(an-other tool from my bro)

2008-09-07T21:02:00.003+05:30

Nifty support at 4328 and 4287 resitance at 4454.

in coming few days downward target seems 4200-4160.

2008-09-04T21:06:00.004+05:30

Nifty closed at 4447.75

supports......4420......4372
resitance......4454....4522

2008-09-04T08:45:00.002+05:30

Support at 4454 resitance at 4522......4572.

Though it reached at 4504 and indicators looks bulish but ......

2008-09-01T23:11:00.001+05:30

2008-09-01T23:09:00.002+05:30

Today's market actually confused me.Though VSI is still above zero but looks berish.

Support & Resitance levels remain same.

Index Vs Stock Trading

2008-08-31T13:02:00.002+05:30

It is over advertised by various brokerage houses that Index trading is more fruitful compare to stock ….., Traders thinks……Index trading is easy……it is less risky ……i.e. stock can break or rise 5-10% in a day whereas the Index hardily moves 2-3%.....One more thinking came from some advance traders…….stock can be manipulated by operators…..big players but Index can’t…….they consider profit/loss in percentage form and not in amount…….

Well…….I don’t have any reason to refuse or accept their views…….I have some different opinion ……and in my opinion ……..Index Trading could be more harm-full compare to stock…….

There is a mental aspect……if you get an offer to sell a product at commission of 1%......most probably you will ignore but if you know that 1% is equal to 1000 Rs. Then ……..?

The same aspect works here…….. 2-3% is lower than 5-6%.........??

Just consider any heavyweight……if a stock like Reliance or LT broken 5% trader lose approximately 100-150 Rs whereas if Index break just half i.e.2-3% Trader lose equal amount……..

Now we comes to other point…….Index can not be manipulated……. Well…..just drive 4-5 heveyweight like Reliance, Bhel, HDFC, LT and watch where the Index goes……these 4-5 stocks can pull the Index 2% higher whereas the other stocks could be kissing the earth............

This is corporate time…….FIIs, DIIs, Mutual Funds normally know what the other will do next day…….in some cases …..Profit or Loss is pre-decided between them…….so who actually lose……?

An other reason that force me to think………in stock…..one or two operators/forces could be interested at one time……but because Index is based on 30-50 stocks……so various players force it to move in either direction…….and it become too volatile……

Throw It Down

2008-08-31T12:05:00.002+05:30

If we study the historical data……we will find……market trade in trending zone only 30-40% , rest of the time it moves range-bound…………

For few peoples (including me ) shorting seems easy……., for longs we need established up-trending market but shorting can be done in down-trending as-well range-bound market easily.

But in some case…….picture goes differently……, we short a stock and it start rising drastically. Though, it is always possible …..but to avoid such conditions we can use some cautions, also ....when we short at highest levels....our stop become too small but if we short at lower-levels......the stop become big......so always try to keep stop as low as possible.

1. Simply mark the highest high and lower lows at chart……..if primary trend is down or range-bound …….short it with stop above day’s high.

2. If the stock has broken day’s high but failed to break previous day’s high and now trading below day’s high ……short it with stop at previous days high.

3. Find a stock that is trading below previous days close……short it with a stop 1-2 points above last day’s close.

4. If stock break day’s low……short it with stop above day’s high. But in this case stop will be much bigger, so better to keep the stop either above last day’s close or based on small Time-frame.

5. Never short a stock that is trading below 3-4%.......reason being…..most probably it won’t go much down unless there is a bad news or market is crashing.

6. Never short a stock that is making new highs and in up-momentum.

2008-08-29T23:00:00.001+05:30

An-other good day.

Nifty closed at 4360.

Immediate supports for monday......4315......4214 ...spot. resitance.....4454.

2008-08-28T22:16:00.007+05:30

At-least today market broken the range.......else from last few days I was in impression that either few global giants or few fiis have gone bank-rupt or facing the situtations of bank ruptcy.

Nifty closed at 4214. Next support......at 4105.Resitance.....4270.

2008-08-27T22:27:00.007+05:30

Still there......

Index is trading range-bound. Immediate support....4270...4220, can turn either side in day or two.

2008-08-25T22:16:00.004+05:30

Nifty closed at 4335.

Resitance at 4390......support at 4290.

VSI doesn't looks confident+ expiry impact. Dow and Europian markets are also down.
hopefully tomarrow market will be in deep red.

Buying at higher levels.......

2008-08-24T10:40:00.008+05:30

I forgotten ………

In intra-day....when buying near low, our stop is too small and we don’t care if it broken……or some-time we turn the trade short after breaking the stop, but when we buy at higher levels………we use a comparitively broad stop....so that it can flucate....but .......

We normally face 3 phases when we buy at higher levels :

1. We bought the stock…….and as expected…..it kept continue rising.
2. We bought the stock…..it moved little higher ….and came down before we close.
3. Just after buying it started sliding.

Well…..did we considered……..?

1. What is the average range of the stock in last few days……? If it has already reached to it’s range……there is a less possibility that it will further move higher.

2. It has broken it’s day’s high……but could it break previous day’s high……? If it has broken both……it is a good candidate to buy……, if broken days high but failed to break previous day’s high……better to short with a stop of previous day’s high.

2008-08-21T22:26:00.004+05:30

I apologize to my-self and my visitors for my ignorance. Since last 4 days I could not update my data......and result.......I missed the point that index is rising but VSI is negative....., not again.

August VSI (blue line) -57%, Sep -46%.

We can look for a downward target upto 4002 levels

What & When to buy

2008-08-20T23:46:00.001+05:30

As I written before……..only two type of stocks should be traded, one those, trading near top and other trading near low. But the real question comes……Long or Short ….?

Well……., there is no perfect rules…..depend on price movement…..if the stock is moving up…...long…else short….avoid a narrow ranged or flat bias stock. But ……in 80% cases the stock can not perform out of overall trend…..i.e. if majority of stock is trading in red….the single stock can not move higher…….it will face the weakness ….and visa versa……so better to have a look on Index……if index is trading above (near) 1% ……. look for long….else short…..a range bound market……Index trading in a range of 20-30 points…….I normally look to short with 2 level stop (mentally and actual stop).

The second question…….where to buy/sell…..? Well…..in my opinion …….pick a stock trading at bottom and place a stop below day’s low……, or buy a stock near high….and place a stop below the previous candle…….It will be better to consider at-least 2 factors when buying near top ……..

1. It has broken it’s days high.
2. Previous high has been broken with higher volumes.

Besides these two some other factors those should/can be considered ……( I am lazy……., don’t update my data-bank also this is my professional problem as I don’t have so much time………)

1. On Previous day……the stock was closed near to day’s high.
2. It has broken it’s previous days high…..and not trading below it.

Few peoples use an other formula…….as they buy near 5-10-15 minutes ma and place a stop below it….., few peoples use pivot based or hourly support systems…….well matter of own experience……..can’t say.

Nifty for 21st August 2008

2008-08-20T21:51:00.005+05:30

Hopefully....we can see a upmove upto 4600.

Imediate support at 4360 resitance at 4470. If Nifty could break 4470 .....it can ride upto 4538-4600 .

Is there a link...?

2008-08-18T22:54:00.006+05:30

W. D. Gann…….

It is being heard…….he used……wheels……triangles……squares……..in his trading. It is also been heard that he knew some astrology…..and that he used in his trading……The method he developed is being called …….Gann’s Theory.

Well……I don’t know the a b c of Gann’s theory……I tried to read once or twice but it always went from over my head.

One more thing……I can not read the philosophical or romantic discussion or subject…….. it bores me. In my routine life…I watch Cartoon & Disney net work along-with my kids, I can read /watch a horror/supernatural or thriller novel or movie but subjects like economics……geography…….history……TA…..GOD SAVES ME

When I was reading in 7th-8th class……my interest turned to Astro and numerology and tried to learn…….some time the result I predicted went right but about other 95% time I proved wrong. Anyway….., my purpose of writing this all story is not to prove Astro or Numerology is right or wrong, I just want to bring some facts those I studied in last few years.

It is being said that Sun’s impact starts at-least one week before from the date of changing it’s sign. Now have a look :

Planet’s situation as on 11th May 2006 :

Planet Sign
Sun Brashva
Moon Dhanu
Mars Kark
Mercury Mithun
Jupiter Tula
Venus Mesh
Saturn Kark
Rahu Meen
Ketu Kanya
Rising Sign Brashva and after 15th May Mithun

Sun changed it’s sign on 15th April 2006 from Taurus to Gemini……..and we know after touching 3774 on 11th May 2006 levels and it touched a low of 2595 on 14th June 2006. The facts that attracted was Mars & Saturn were in 2nd house from the sun and Venus was in 12th.

Planet’s situation on 11th December 2006.

Sun Brishka
Moon Brishva
Mars Brishka
Mercury Brishka
Jupiter Brishka
Venus Dhanu
Saturn Kark
Rahu Kumbh
Ketu Singh
Rising Sign Brishka and 16th December onward Kumbh

On 8th December 2006 Nifty touched 4046 and start falling …letter-on it touched low of 3657 on 13th December, as I have indicated earlier that Sun’s impact comes one week before…….Sun was on last degrees of Brishka and if we count it in Kumbh then Mars+Mercury+Jupiter comes in 12th house from Sun.

Again……., we comes to 27th Febury 2007.

Sun Kumbh
Moon Mithun
Mars Makar
Mercury Kumbh
Jupiter Brishka
Venus Meen
Saturn Kark
Rahu Kumbh
Ketu Singh
Rising Sign Kumbh

And on 27th Feb 2007……..Nifty touched the high of 3958 and start falling……..and on 16th March 2007 it touched the low of 3573.

Ok, forget the history…….let us come to 10th January 2008.

Sun Dhanu and 14th onward in Makar.
Moon Makar
Mars Meen and 15th onward in Mesh.
Mercury Dhanu
Jupiter Dhanu
Venus Brishka
Saturn Cancer
Rahu Kumbh
Ketu Singh
Rising Sign Dhanu and 15th onward Makar

And on 10th January 2008 ……Nifty touched a high of 6347 and …….we all k now where it is now.

We can easily spot …….all the times…..there were few planets either were in 2nd or 12th house from the sun.

Now tell me ………is there any relation between Stock Market & Planets……?

Nifty for 19th August 2008

2008-08-18T21:16:00.003+05:30

Nifty closed 37 points down at 4393.

Support at 4290.....resitance....4470...4484.

Nifty for 18th August 2008

2008-08-17T21:23:00.007+05:30

Support........at 4295. Resitance......4538.

Hopefully....in major part of the day.....it will play rang-bound.

Legal Robbers

2008-08-17T00:28:00.006+05:30

I am little confused …or say am facing a great question……..do I am earning for my self or for government……..?

Just go few years back……..near about 1930….1940……..how many taxes we were paying………? I was not born on that time………if something I read about taxation at that time…….it was Tax on salt…..and lagan……..

Now have a look on taxes we pay in our current time……..Excise/Production duty……20 to 35%, VAT…..1 to 12.5%,….Service Tax……12.36%, Security Transaction Tax ……..0.017%......, Income Tax 10 to 30%+Cess ,Besides… those……house tax, electricity tax, entertainment tax, road tax,….etc.

If we head-wise customize our expenditures and exclude the amount of tax we can easily trace-out that we are actually spending on 30-40% of our income and rest of the amount that we pay is tax that is been flushed by government ……….

Did any of central or state government declared………how much has been collected from a particular area and how much amount has been spent on development or on other utilities in that particular area……??

One question that I am facing from beginning………Mr. X manufacture something……and sell to Mr. Y…….and the product transferred to Mr. Z……and public……..now what the hell government did in this simple procedure…….? Why the central government ask for production duty and state government……..VAT….?

Well……..my friends some time asks …….if government does not collect taxes……..from where they will arrange money for administration……/development…….

Well the first solution that flash in my mind is…….ask 2% from every-one as national contribution……….and forget all……if this is not enough………than collect the tax as you are doing and return it after 5 years……….run your administration expenditure from the interest ………..

But now my friends keep quite……they know……..it is not possible.

And Finance Ministers……..actually……he should be called fraud minister here is a small example of his sucking nature……….When STT was introduced …it was promised by FM that this amount can be reduced from Income-tax……..for few years ……..it was claimed but now the intention of FM has become dishonest……..now he says……you can setoff the STT as expenditure but can’t claim as tax……..

Well……...some time I feel…….ducats are much better who loots you once or twice…….but governments……..they rapes whole life……….

Option Trading

2008-08-15T20:06:00.013+05:30

Investing is a different game…….find a good fundamentally stock……..invest & forget…….the returns could be 50% to 100% in a small time frame of 2-3 years. But it needs lot of patience, normally suitable for few peoples.

Here in trading world traders wants quick money & use various tools/forms like intraday/positional/future/options trading etc, problem become more painful for those who try their luck with small capital.

Normally …..This is over advertised by various groups/traders……the options can be traded with less capital……., they are less risky…….but this is the half truth only.

The fact is for perfect play…. options require equal money else they are more dangerous if played naked ……trader can lose 100% of his investment. Reason being……option is a wasting asset.

In my personal opinion……….stay away from options……..and use them for heading purpose only.

On the other part ……a handsome gain of 5 to 20-30% can be made in days if the trader use them in well understood method. Well I am giving few option plays here with my personal opinion…...

Naked Option:

It could be a Zin of Aladdin’s Chirag …….can turn a small amount in double in a day or two……..but for that…you require to become an astrologer……who know today/tomorrow…..the market will turn one side…….(you know the side……)
But problem is……..if I become astrologers who know where market will go……why I need option……..and why not future………..?

Straddles / Strangles

Straddle is buying or selling of one pair of calls/put of same strikes, same months……..normally useful in uncertain situations that market can turn either side…….….the trader earn on one side and lose the premium paid on other side…….

For example………Nifty is trading at 4500…….., buy/sell one call/put of 4400……….now if nifty turn to 4600 a long straddle buyer (call+put) will earn on call and lose on put and visa versa if nifty goes at 4400.To maximize profit ……trader can use butterfly……..

Strangles………buying/selling of calls/put of different strikes……..other features are same……….

In my personal view…….both the strategies are super idiotic……if traded from long side…….the reason being……..if market remain same for 5 days……the trader will lose approx 50% of premium on both side…….

A short straddle/strangle is normally useful for seller …….as if market play in a range……the option lose it’s value and seller enjoy premium……..but if the market turn one side the seller lose big amount……..

Spreads

The best strategy that I ever seen in options……….

Bull spread with Calls

Useful in up-trend. Buy a call say 4400 sell a call say 4500 the risk is the difference of premium paid – premium receive. If Index rise…….the 4400 call will rise @ .5 to .6 approx. and 4500call will rise @.3 to .4 approx, at expiry the difference of the market price of calls will be credited to account.

Visa-versa if index fall……..the trader lose the difference of the calls.

Bear Spread with Calls

Useful when the market is trading range bound or expected to fall…….Buy an OTM call say 4700 sell an ITM call say 4500. If market remain same…….or fall……..trader lose what he has paid as premium and enjoy premium received But if market take a sharp rise…….the trader will has to pay the market price of call he sold and will receive the price of what he bought.

Bull spread with Puts

Useful in down-trend. As bull spread with calls………, buy an ITM put say……4600 sell and ATM/OTM put say 4500-4400. In a sharp fall the ITM put will rise @ .5-.6 and ATM/OTM put will rise @ .3 -.4. If market goes in wrong direction……traders lose the difference of the premium paid.

Bear Spread with Puts

Useful when the market is trading range bound or expected to rise…….Buy an OTM put say 4200 sell an ITM put say 4500. If market remain same…….or rise ……..trader lose what he has paid as premium and enjoy premium received. If market start falling……..the trader has to pay the market price of strike price he sold and will receive on what he bought.

Limited Risk Strategies.

2008-08-14T23:01:00.007+05:30

Am not comfortable with small stops........as it hit pretty soon. Is there a limited risk stratigy.......

Well.......try this.....much better than playing with long options as a wasting assets option lose it's premium fast.

Long future & Short call

Buy future and sell a ITM call. By selling the call, the seller receive premium. Now a stop upto the amount of premium received can be maintained at future.

In this trade ........we don't seek profit on option......., If future rise ......we earn on future & lose on option....(an ITM call will rise @ .5-.6 whearas future will rise @ 1), if future remain same......we earn on option as with the time.....the option will lose it's premium. The RR ratio comes on this strategy ...approx.....1/2 : 1.

Short Future Long Minifuture

Short one lot of Nifty Future...buy one lot of mini....this will work in bear market......maintain the stop at full lot........

RR ratio.......2 : 3

2008-08-14T21:45:00.007+05:30

.........and Index broken by 100 points.......

The maximum I can say........Nifty walo.......apni nifty samnbhalo.......

Cheers............

Break......or Make......!

2008-08-13T22:02:00.005+05:30

Just compare both charts......

Nifty futures...... the sentiments are turning berish......

A break of 4470 can triger heavy sale.....

However......am not too berish........may be upto 4295....4002......

Break or make.....!

2008-08-13T21:53:00.003+05:30

Just compare both charts......

Nifty August futures...... the sentiments are turning berish....whearas....

Outlook for 13th August

2008-08-12T22:20:00.004+05:30

Chatur naar could not become more chatur.......! After touching 4525 at lower side Nifty closed at 4552.

due to holiday on 15th ....the profit booking ....hopefully......remaining two days will be in red.

and if it break 4470.......the next support ...at 4290....

In down momentum....the stocks can be looked to short......DLF, HDFC Bank, JP Associates,Maruti.

2008-08-11T22:14:00.004+05:30

As I gused...."we can see an upmove of 100-150 points"......Nifty closed 70 points up at 4620,.........may be 100-125 points more.....

4470 will be the support......

Nifty

2008-08-09T21:48:00.008+05:30

Ek chatur naar badi hosiaar........

Nifty........

Last few days mooves are quite confusing....can go either way...
OK, let us have a look at charts.....May to August.....

The Index and VSI July and August. We can easly spot....whenever Average VSI went above VSI....we seen the fall.

But I hope that before a fall.....we can see a upmove of 100-150 points.....

As far as I am concern.....I am ready to short if goes below 4470.

The Power of 8

2008-08-08T21:51:00.004+05:30

8th August 2008.........

8+8+2+0+0+8=26=2+6=8.

Upto 2004 I never thought....but have a look......

The date of regestration of my house........17th...1+7=8

Number of my house......8

The Telephone number that I installed first time....the total of the numbers 8....(now it is 9 because of greatness of TRY & Telephone company)

The total of my and my wife's date of birth.....8....

Even I got married on 8th...

What next.....??

2008-08-08T21:38:00.003+05:30

At 11-15/20 am when I opened my software......Axis bank was already down by more than 2.5%, DLF and voltas 1%.....now last choice was HDFC that I shorted at 2490, after reaching at 2476 I modified the stop at 2480 and it hit, letter on it falled upto 2466.......I didn't placed an other trade in HDFC.

The second trade ......Shorted Adlabs at 557.....totally un-pland......it went upto 552.....but my greed.....didn't modified the stop, letter-on it break my mental stop of 562...and gone to my actual stop 567...and back......finally I closed it at 561.small loss of 4 Rs.

An-other un-pland trade.....I shorted ICICI bank at 702...with stop at 710 but immediately I relized my mistake.....it was rising with higher volumes....finally it broken my stop and I revarsed the trade. When it was at 736..I modified the stop from 708 to 732 and hit....

Not bad.

2008-08-07T23:50:00.007+05:30

Blogging .....without emotions.....

as wine without motion.....,
woman.....without emotions.......

do the google people don't know the importance of emotions......or is it beyond my reach.....?

Few other stocks....I can short......

2008-08-07T23:05:00.008+05:30

Voltas

DLF

HDFC

Axis Bank

2008-08-07T22:52:00.002+05:30

By nature I am little bear. Normally ....I look for a stock near high .....and short with a small stop....

Asper yesterday's thought I shorted Axis bank at 760 and covered at 752.....small profit...it could not fall as I guessed....

I will look opportunity to short-Axis Bank

2008-08-06T21:45:00.005+05:30

2008-08-05T22:37:00.003+05:30

Nifty closed at 4503......(above 4470.) may be we are going to see 4700+ now.

Support levels......4470.......4247....

Turning Point

2008-08-05T22:25:00.005+05:30

2008-08-05T09:22:00.002+05:30

if.....nifty could close over 4470.......

Wrold market is deep down.......

Nifty......can sink........

Scanning the stocks.........

2008-08-04T23:02:00.003+05:30

There is some problem .......the formulas those I applied on the sheet that i uploded at google docks are not appearing........let me right here the manual process.......

Colums A ........Name of the Stock

Column B C D ......high low & close respectively.

Column E .....High - Low .....

Column F......Type-1 (near high)

Now apply the formula in column F.......if e<5,E,0

Column G.....Close- Low

Column H......Type-2

repet the same formula in column H.

or find the sheet here......

http://rapidshare.com/files/134816711/scan.xls.html

Scanning the stocks

2008-08-04T22:18:00.005+05:30

How many peoples are able to find big movers....?

How many of them are able to pick big movers at right price....?

During day-trading the first question that a newbie even a 1-2 years experienced trader face is which stock should be looked …….?

Years back………when I faced the same question……..the journey began……..books…….and books…..and books…….full of ideas…….look for 3 -5-9-13 days……trend……,previous days values…….....this ......that.........Ridicules.

Is all this useful…….? Well....., will discuss some other day……..

Here I am giving my opinion………… if one has the same …….good……….if doesn’t have no problem……..every thing is in charts……..and for 15-30 minutes life I don’t need anything except 30-60 minutes data.

My simple opinion is one can scan the stock according to his requirements……..many software provide scan…..but problem is that either those software are beyond reach of a small trader…or too costly……

An other problem……..every-one has his own criteria……few peoples tracks only those stocks those are trading beyond 2-5% either side……..few searches ranging stocks……..

Anyway………my personal opinion is only 2 type of stocks should be selected, one those are trading near high and other those are trading near low…….the rest can be kept in watch-list with a predefined alert.

But the question is in a watch list of 50/100 shares it is hard to locket these stock in first view……..well, I am uploading an excel sheet here ....

This sheet generates the stocks those are trading in range of 5 from lowest/highest…..one can develop the idea on % basis or according to needs....

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p65QPBPk8sfAu6o_RZMZbDA

(the original sheet that I prepared had some colour combination but after uploading at google that colour formating is not working.......anyway.......one can short the data according to value (near high/low) and ignor the stock with zero value in releted column.)

Day Trading - A Practical Approch

2008-08-04T22:02:00.003+05:30

Stock Market.......the market of posibilities....statacis....., of manuplators......
peoples comes.........few earns........few survives and rest vanished.....

In day-trading what works....? Many of tried.....,are trying ......and sharing.....OK ......I will try to contribute something.......no matter ....you find it use full or redicules.......

Rising Volume Strength

2008-08-02T17:06:00.005+05:30

VSI has been rised from 6 to 34....may be a uptrend is near to start.....
if.....nifty could close over 4470.......

2008-07-31T21:29:00.001+05:30

Nifty.......
Resitance at 4441......support at 4285.....4190......4159.

Shorting can be done

Outlook for 1st August 2008

2008-07-31T21:10:00.003+05:30

Nifty.......
Resitance at 4441......support at 4285.....4190......4159.

Can we hope for an up-trend......?

2008-07-30T23:08:00.007+05:30

VSI (Volume strength Index) is still at 6%......and the up-move seems because of short covering only.

Though Nifty rised near 3% but....., momentum still looks doubtful.......

.....hopefully .....the real colours will occure after expiry only.

Volume Strength

2008-07-30T08:47:00.003+05:30

In last 5 days volume strength declined from 51% to 16%.

Hopefully.......nothing is going to change.....Nifty ......may be flat/rangbound.

Outlook for 30th July 2008

2008-07-29T23:02:00.005+05:30

Support for Nifty 4105

Ooutlook for today

2008-07-29T09:07:00.001+05:30

Though yesterday's chart don't seems berish, international markets are deep down.......
support for Nifty........4238........4126

Nifty

2008-07-28T23:20:00.002+05:30

Does it give a thought .......??

2008-07-28T22:51:00.001+05:30